Health Policy Manag.  2022 Dec;32(4):356-367. 10.4332/KJHPA.2022.32.4.356.

Development of a Risk Assessment Tool for Emerging Infectious Diseases

• Woo D
• Choi E
• Choe YJ
• Yeh J
• Park S

• KMID: 2538412
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4332/KJHPA.2022.32.4.356

Abstract

Background
The emergence of new infectious diseases threatens public health, increasing socioeconomic damage, and national risks. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based risk assessment tool to quickly respond to new infectious diseases.
Methods
The risk elements were extracted by reviewing the risk assessment methods of the World Health Organization, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, and Germany, and the validity and priority of elements were determined through expert meetings and Delphi surveys. Then, the scale and level for each risk element were defined and a final score calculation method according to the risk evaluation result was derived. The developed risk assessment tool was verified using data at the time of domestic transmission of an emerging infectious disease.
Results
In case of spread of actual infectious diseases, priority is determined based on the criticality of the elements in each area of transmissibility and severity, from which the weighted score of the risk assessment is derived. Then, the risk score for each element was calculated by multiplying the average value of the risk evaluation by its weight and the evaluation risk assessment score for the two areas was calculated. At last, the final score is plotted in a matrix where the x-axis indicates the transmissibility and the y-axis the severity and plotted on the coordinate plane for time series use.
Conclusion
With respect to transmissibility and severity, this risk assessment method to respond to new and re-emerging infectious diseases enables rapid and evidence-based evaluation by quantitatively and qualitatively assessing various risk elements.

Keyword

Emerging communicable diseases; Risk assessment; Risk evaluation; Risk analysis