J Korean Soc Menopause.  2012 Dec;18(3):180-186.

Estimation of the Relative Risk for Breast Cancer in Korean Women Using Gail Model

• Lee ES
• Seo JS
• Hong YP
• Park HM

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
The aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for breast cancer using the Gail model and to observe the relationship between mammographic density and the 5-year risk of breast cancer.
METHODS
A total of 600 women who visited the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology in Chung-Ang University Yongsan Hospital were screened using the Gail model to estimate their relative risk for breast cancer. The correlation between the 5-year risk of breast cancer and the mammographic density of 462 women who had performed mammography within 1 year of the study was analyzed.
RESULTS
The mean age of the study subjects was 56.7 +/- 8.2 years. The estimated mean values for the 5-year risk and lifetime risk for breast cancer were 1.23 +/- 0.46% and 7.90 +/- 2.76% respectively in all study subjects. The estimated mean value of the 5-year risk for breast cancer increased with age. Otherwise, the estimated lifetime risk for breast cancer decreased with age. Ninety-two women (15.3%) were classified as high-risk because their estimated 5-year risk was over 1.67% or their lifetime risk was over 20%. High risk percentages according to age were 10.5% in the thirties, 0.84% in the forties, 7.2% in the fifties, 32.7% in the sixties, and 35.7% in the seventies. Among the high risk postmenopausal women, 52.2% were taking hormone therapy. Mammographic density was not significantly correlated with the estimated 5-year risk for breast cancer.
CONCLUSION
About fifteen percent of study subjects were at high risk for breast cancer according to the estimated 5-year risk or lifetime risk for breast cancer using Gail model. Mammographic density was not correlated with the 5-year risk for breast cancer.

Keyword

Breast neoplasms; Gail model; Mammography; Risk assessment

MeSH Terms

Breast
Breast Neoplasms
Female
Gynecology
Humans
Mammary Glands, Human
Mammography
Obstetrics
Risk Assessment
Breast Neoplasms
Mammary Glands, Human

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Breast cancer risk calculator based on the Gail model by National Cancer Institute.

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  Fig. 2 The relationship between age and mammographic density in women on hormone therapy (A) and not on hormone therapy (B).

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  Fig. 3 The relationship between 5-year risk of breast cancer and mammographic density in women on hormone therapy (A) and not on hormone therapy (B).

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